VoIP in ’04 :: Voxilla.com :: A user’s guide to the VoIP revolution
The staff over at Voxilla have put together a compelling set of predictions for big VoIP-related happenings in 2004. Here are a couple I found most interesting.
2. Many new VoIP enabled routers hit the market.
I think this will be a huge boon to Skype’s competitors. If more routers came with out-of-the-box configurations for VoIP, that would take away Skype’s only serious advantage.
9. Broadband service providers up their uplink speeds.
I can only hope. I would gladly pay more to get a boost to my average 500 kbps download speed, but my broadband provider, Earthlink (via Covad), has a big gap in price between the plan I have and the cheapest SOHO plan. Even worse, when I check the Earthlink site to see if I can upgrade to that plan, it tells me that they offer only dial-up access to my address. Never mind the fact that they have provided me with DSL service for years. As much as I dislike SBC, their prices look pretty good and their wide variety of offers blow Earthlink away.
10. FCC steps in on regulation.
Maybe I will be proven to be a fool, but I’m not quite as worried about this as most people. Regulation isn’t all bad. If one of my neighbors develops a new kind of death ray device that doesn’t use the old fashioned death rays that the Regional Death Ray Operating Companies have been relying on for years, I’m going to want to see some regulation imposed. Just don’t go crazy on me and ban all kinds of Death Ray research and development or make it where only the big guys can compete.
Update 1/13/04: These quotes from FCC Chairman Michael Powell match up well with my feelings on the level of VoIP regulation that is needed. My concern over regulation is lesser than others primarily because I think heavy regulation is very unlikely. I agree that heavy regulation would be an extremely bad thing.
In the comments section, someone added:
11. VoIP Spam
This is so sad, but so true. As other commenters also point out, super cheap international calling rates will open us up to unregulated telemarketing calls from locations where English-speaking labor is cheap. Like North Dakota. Wait, they’re still regulated. Okay, then, India, Jamaica, and the Philippines. The Do-Not-Call list. Hmmm, maybe that regulation thing isn’t so bad in every case. The most important feature you’re going to need on your VoIP phone is an effective form of Caller ID.
I hadn’t actually thought of the VoIP Spam possibility but when you mention it it’s clear: this will certainly come & it will pollute VoIP services like it has polluted email, instant messenger services and blog comments so far… Still, services like Skype (and surely others too) will allow (even require) proper caller ID, and as you mention, this will take care of parts of it.
Nightmare scenario: if a “skype virus” starts making calls to your buddies just like MS Outlook’s adressbook has been used by virus in the past…
I wouldn’t be surprised if someone is already hard at work on an MSN Messenger virus that can act like the theoretical “skype virus” you describe. Messenger is an obvious target because: